NEW ZEALAND: Continued Contraction In Filled Jobs Signals Further Job Shedding

October filled jobs fell 0.1% m/m to be down 1.5% y/y after -0.1% and -1.0%. This was the seventh consecutive monthly decline but the 3-month average pace of contraction is moderating. While it is only one month of Q4, it is pointing to another decline in employment after Q3 fell 0.5% q/q. Weak growth is not only driving less job growth but also redundancies. Further monetary easing is likely in early 2025.

• The RBNZ forecast the unemployment rate to peak at 5.2% in Q1 2025 in its November projections with employment down 0.5% y/y. While the unemployment rate was revised down over the forecast horizon, employment growth is now expected to be weaker than assumed in August.
• Goods-producing industries and services were both lower at -0.2% m/m and -0.1% respectively, while primary rose 1.2% m/m.
• The government’s plan to reduce spending is reflected in filled jobs for public administration & safety which are down 7.2% y/y in October.
• Construction (-5.3% y/y), admin services (-6.2% y/y) and accommodation & food services (-3.5% y/y) were other weak sectors, while health care rose 3.7% y/y. In addition, all regions saw a drop on a year ago.
• Youth unemployment can be a leading indicator of labour market trends, and the annual contraction in filled jobs was sharpest in the 15-19 yrs age group followed by 25-29 yrs. Over 35yrs saw an increase.

NZ filled jobs y/y% vs SEEK job ads