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NEW ZEALAND: Household Inflation Expectations Running Ahead Of Businesses

NEW ZEALAND
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The RBNZ’s household inflation expectations for Q4 were released today and provided a mixed picture. The median perception of current inflation remained elevated at 6.0%, while 1-year out eased 0.5pp to 3%, the top of the RBNZ’s target band. Expectations 2- and 5-years ahead were stable at 3.0%. The 1-year mean was found by the central bank to have a high correlation with underlying inflation, but this measure was sticky at 4.1% and is well above 1-year business inflation expectations at 2.1%. 

  • There was a pickup in those expecting house prices to 43.8% from 35.1% in Q3. The median 1-year ahead expectations was for prices to be flat, while the mean was a 2.2% rise. House price inflation in 5-years is expected to be up 5%, unchanged from Q3.  

NZ RBNZ inflation expectations vs core CPI y/y%

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The RBNZ’s household inflation expectations for Q4 were released today and provided a mixed picture. The median perception of current inflation remained elevated at 6.0%, while 1-year out eased 0.5pp to 3%, the top of the RBNZ’s target band. Expectations 2- and 5-years ahead were stable at 3.0%. The 1-year mean was found by the central bank to have a high correlation with underlying inflation, but this measure was sticky at 4.1% and is well above 1-year business inflation expectations at 2.1%. 

  • There was a pickup in those expecting house prices to 43.8% from 35.1% in Q3. The median 1-year ahead expectations was for prices to be flat, while the mean was a 2.2% rise. House price inflation in 5-years is expected to be up 5%, unchanged from Q3.  

NZ RBNZ inflation expectations vs core CPI y/y%

Keep reading...Show less