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NEW ZEALAND: Q3 Retail Volumes Close To Flat Driven By A Few Sectors

NEW ZEALAND
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Q3 retail sales volumes fell less than expected and less than in Q2, which saw a sharp fall of 1.2% q/q. Q3 was down 0.1% q/q and 2.7% y/y. Statistics NZ reported that ten of the fifteen retail sectors contracted on the quarter, signalling that household spending remains very weak as monetary policy is still restrictive and the 75bp of easing to date will take time to feed through to consumers. With growth overall remaining weak and inflation in the target band, we expect another 50bp RBNZ rate cut on November 27.

  • Real private consumption in the national accounts also includes services spending. It rose 0.4% q/q in Q2 and it may post another rise in Q3 given the improvement in retail sales volumes. Q3 GDP is out on December 19. Q3 nominal card transactions fell slightly on the quarter.
  • Food & beverage services were the weakest retail sector in Q3 falling 2.1% q/q and supermarkets & grocery stores -1.3% q/q. Motor vehicles & parts and electrical goods were the strongest sectors.

NZ retail sales volumes y/y%

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Q3 retail sales volumes fell less than expected and less than in Q2, which saw a sharp fall of 1.2% q/q. Q3 was down 0.1% q/q and 2.7% y/y. Statistics NZ reported that ten of the fifteen retail sectors contracted on the quarter, signalling that household spending remains very weak as monetary policy is still restrictive and the 75bp of easing to date will take time to feed through to consumers. With growth overall remaining weak and inflation in the target band, we expect another 50bp RBNZ rate cut on November 27.

  • Real private consumption in the national accounts also includes services spending. It rose 0.4% q/q in Q2 and it may post another rise in Q3 given the improvement in retail sales volumes. Q3 GDP is out on December 19. Q3 nominal card transactions fell slightly on the quarter.
  • Food & beverage services were the weakest retail sector in Q3 falling 2.1% q/q and supermarkets & grocery stores -1.3% q/q. Motor vehicles & parts and electrical goods were the strongest sectors.

NZ retail sales volumes y/y%

Keep reading...Show less