NEW ZEALAND: Westpac On ANZ Business Conditions
The local bank weighs in the earlier ANZ business conditions print. It doesn't expect the buoyant prints to change RBNZ thinking ahead of next week's meeting. It is penciling in a 25bps cut next week.
"Business confidence: 60.9 (Prev: 50.6)
Expectations for own trading activity: 45.3 (Prev: 37.1)
Activity vs same month one year ago: -18.5 (Prev: -23.1)
Inflation expectations: 2.92% (Prev: 2.92%)
Pricing intentions: 42.8 (Prev: 41.0)
Overall, today’s results probably broadly match the RBNZ’s expectations, and likely won’t have changed their thinking ahead of next week’s policy announcement: Activity remains soft; inflation pressures have stabilised and are well down on the elevated levels we saw in recent years; and signs of a firming in growth over 2025 are starting to emerge. Against that backdrop, we’re forecasting a 25bp cut in the OCR at next week’s RBNZ policy review. The last piece of key data before the RBNZ meets will be tomorrow’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion, which we expect will show similar trends to today’s ANZBO survey."