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Newly Retooled ADP on Tap

US TSYS
Tsy futures trading weaker, tracking German Bunds lower earlier after Italian HICP embargo appears to have been broken (HICP at 9.0%Y/Y, median consensus was 8.2%Y/Y according to Bbg).
  • Dec'22 takes the lead quarterly position on decent volumes (TYZ2>325k). Modest bounce in Tsy 30Y bonds after extending overnight lows recently, 30YY currently 3.2509 (+.0354) after tapping 3.2670% high.
  • Upcoming data: After pausing the report back on June 30 - eagerly awaited release of ADP's retooled private-sector employment report at 0815ET. Appropriate timing ahead Aug NFP report this Friday (+300k est vs. +528k prior).
    • ADP and the "Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the Lab) have developed a new methodology for the ADP National Employment Report (NER) that will provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market with a focus on both jobs and pay. Using fine-grained data, this new measure will deliver a richer labor market analysis that will help answer key economic and business questions and offer insights relevant to a broader audience."
  • Additionally, MNI Chicago PMI (52.1, 52.2) release at 0945ET
  • Fed speak:
    • Cleveland Fed Mester eco-outlook, Dayton CoC, text and Q&A at 0800ET
    • Later this evening: Dallas Fed new President Lorie Logan event at 1800ET
    • Atl Fed Bostic, moderated Q&A Georgia Fintech Academy, 1830ET
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