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STIR: Next Fed Cut Increasingly Seen In July Rather Than June

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s push higher with help from a retail sales report that can be best described as not showing particular weakness rather than an outright strong report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp for tomorrow, 6bp May, 19.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 61bp Dec.
  • It leaves the rate path at the hawkish end of the past two weeks, with 61bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs briefly almost 90bp earlier last week, but it’s still dovish compared to the 50bp pencilled in back in the December SEP.  
  • We expect this 50bp of cuts to be kept with the new SEP due tomorrow, something a majority of analysts expect, but those who do look for a change unusually look for moves in the opposite direction.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview here.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s push higher with help from a retail sales report that can be best described as not showing particular weakness rather than an outright strong report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp for tomorrow, 6bp May, 19.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 61bp Dec.
  • It leaves the rate path at the hawkish end of the past two weeks, with 61bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs briefly almost 90bp earlier last week, but it’s still dovish compared to the 50bp pencilled in back in the December SEP.  
  • We expect this 50bp of cuts to be kept with the new SEP due tomorrow, something a majority of analysts expect, but those who do look for a change unusually look for moves in the opposite direction.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview here.
image