MNI: Canada CPI Rise Is Broader Than End Of Sales Tax Break

test headline

CANADA FEB CPI 2.6% FROM JAN 1.9% AS FEDERAL TAX BREAK ENDS

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, March 18

MNI BRIEF: China Electricity Demand Up In February

MNI BRIEF: Beijing Industrial Value Added Up In Jan Feb

MNI: US FEB INDUSTRIAL PROD +0.7%; CAP UTIL 78.2%

MNI: US FEB HOUSING STARTS 1.501M; PERMITS 1.456M

MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO

GERMANY: Handelsblatt Report on Lingering Uncertainties Ahead of Bundestag

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: Next Fed Cut Increasingly Seen In July Rather Than June

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s push higher with help from a retail sales report that can be best described as not showing particular weakness rather than an outright strong report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp for tomorrow, 6bp May, 19.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 61bp Dec.
  • It leaves the rate path at the hawkish end of the past two weeks, with 61bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs briefly almost 90bp earlier last week, but it’s still dovish compared to the 50bp pencilled in back in the December SEP.  
  • We expect this 50bp of cuts to be kept with the new SEP due tomorrow, something a majority of analysts expect, but those who do look for a change unusually look for moves in the opposite direction.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview here.
image
134 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Fed Funds implied rates consolidate yesterday’s push higher with help from a retail sales report that can be best described as not showing particular weakness rather than an outright strong report.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp for tomorrow, 6bp May, 19.5bp Jun, 28.5bp Jul and 61bp Dec.
  • It leaves the rate path at the hawkish end of the past two weeks, with 61bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs briefly almost 90bp earlier last week, but it’s still dovish compared to the 50bp pencilled in back in the December SEP.  
  • We expect this 50bp of cuts to be kept with the new SEP due tomorrow, something a majority of analysts expect, but those who do look for a change unusually look for moves in the opposite direction.
  • See the full MNI Fed Preview here.
image