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STIR: Next Fed Cut Not Fully Priced Until December Following CPI

STIR
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Unequivocally hawkish market reaction to the firmer-than-expected CPI data.

  • The next 25bp Fed rate cut is now not fully discounted until the end of the December FOMC. That move was fully priced through September ahead of the release, with 37bp of cuts showing through December pre-data.
  • FFZ5 briefly prints 1.0 tick above its January low.
  • SFRZ5 briefly prints 2.5 ticks above its January low.
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Unequivocally hawkish market reaction to the firmer-than-expected CPI data.

  • The next 25bp Fed rate cut is now not fully discounted until the end of the December FOMC. That move was fully priced through September ahead of the release, with 37bp of cuts showing through December pre-data.
  • FFZ5 briefly prints 1.0 tick above its January low.
  • SFRZ5 briefly prints 2.5 ticks above its January low.