Next Federal Election Looking Close According To Latest Newspoll

The latest Newspoll from The Australian is currently signalling that the next Federal election due by May next year is shaping up to be a close one. The survey taken between March 18 and 22 showed that the two-party preferred breakdown had narrowed 2pp to 51:49% in favour of the government but it is its worst result since before the 2022 election where the breakdown was 52.1 to 47.9. It is currently pointing to a minority government.

• The primary support for the incumbent Labor Party has dropped 1pp to 32%, which is below last election. The opposition Liberal/Nationals are up 1pp to 37%, almost 2pp higher than the 2022 election. But with 31% of those surveyed choosing a party that is not one of the big two, the election result will be difficult to predict if the trend persists. Support for the Greens rose 1pp to 13% but independents fell 2pp to 11%.
• Despite declining support for the Labor Party, PM Albanese saw a 1pp increase in his net satisfaction rating to -7 while opposition leader Dutton’s fell 1pp to -15. Albanese also remains the preferred PM on 48%, 14pp ahead of Dutton, but there remains are large “don’t know” contingent.