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Next PLC (NXTLN; Baa2 Pos/BBB) Q2 trading update

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
The UK (85%) and apparel focused retailer has reported firm results with slight revision up to FY25 (to Jan) guidance. The £ only curve already trades well tight. Moody's upgrade looks likely.

  • Q2 full-price sales were +3.2% vs. its expectation for -0.3%. That was driven by overseas (+22%) vs. UK more mute +0.4%. Online was +8% vs. retail down -4.7%. In FY24 online was 60% of sales (growth into it is margin accretive).
  • 1H group sales including markdowns were +8% and is being helped by additional revenue from the FatFace acquisition (for £58m in cash).
  • Guidance for 2H full-price sales of +2.5% is unch but the 1H performance will leave FY guidance at +3.4% up from previous +2.5% and vs. Moody's looking for -2% fall. Total group sale guidance left unch at +6%, EBT boosted slightly to £980m (+6.7%).
  • No margin guidance or details for 1H; co has run 17-18% in recent years. It's guidance at FY24 results was for cash from operations of £615m to be netted out by £540m in equity pay-outs while £75m heads to BS (adding to ~£200m cash pile) and leaving net debt (ex. leases) at £625m. Including the £870m in leases that it would be carrying £1.5b in net debt - comfortably levered.
  • Full 1H results (6m to July) come 19th of September.

Equity takes here

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