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NFIB Price Plans Remain In Stubborn Territory

US DATA
  • The NFIB small business index surprisingly fell to 88.5 (cons 89.9) in March after 89.4 in Feb.
  • It’s the lowest level since December 2012, "as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.
  • “Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly.”
  • Within the price components, actual price changes increased by 7pts to a net 28% increasing (highest since Oct’23) whilst the share expecting to increase prices over the next three months increased 3pts back to 33%.
  • The latter has mostly plateaued at similar levels for six months now having lifted off levels in the lower 20s earlier in 2023. This level a little over 30% continues to imply median CPI inflation could struggle to return to pre-pandemic trends - see chart.

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