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Nifty-50 Softens Alongside Ex-China Peers, RBI FX Forward Book Swings to a Net-Long Position

INDIA
  • Local equities started the session on strong footing, with the Nifty 50 index briefly rising to a fresh record high. Intraday gains have since eroded, with the index now around 0.7% in the red amid a broader poor showing among the major ex-China Asian equity indices.
  • According to a statement released by the RBI, the central bank bought $2.07bln of foreign currency in the spot market in December. Its FX forwards book was at $2.18bln at the end of December, swinging to a net-long position compared to a net $11.9b short position in November.
  • While data last Friday showed India's foreign exchange reserves ended a two-week gaining streak and came off a one-month high (standing at $617.23bln of Feb 9), the overall trend in reserves remains up, even as the RBI intervenes to keep the rupee stable. Indeed, the INR is the only currency to have recorded spot gains against the greenback on a YTD basis among the major Asian currencies.
  • But earlier this week, the IMF suggested that the central bank’s intervention “likely exceeded levels necessary to address disorderly market conditions,” noting in its report that “The RBI strongly believes that such a view is incorrect as, in their view, it uses data selectively.”
  • Looking ahead, PMI figures for February are on the docket tomorrow (05:00GMT), with the Manufacturing figure expected to show another month of expansion having crossed above the 50-mark since July 2021.
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