Nigeria, Angola Fight Baseline Adjustment Despite Lower Output

Nigeria and Angola are fighting the adjustment of the OPEC crude output quotas that led to a delay of the OPEC+ meeting, despite not meeting current output targets according to OPEC secondary sources and market sources.

• "Uncertainty is never good for financial markets, with markets now having to wait longer to get clarity what OPEC+ does next year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
• "The postponement of the meeting also shows there are some different views among the group participants”, Staunovo added.
• “OPEC+, we understand, has been trying to push for additional cuts in Q1, just a bit of background, they already have cuts in place including voluntary cuts all the way through the end of next year for the entire group. This would be on top of and on top of, is Saudi Arabia and Russia were to extend their voluntary cuts. But for that they have certain issues with certain members, there are new baselines for several countries next year… that is where the contention is, it is the African countries that are saying you are already giving us a lower baseline and now you want us to cut even more from there. That just needs to be ironed out, ” Sen said.
• Amena Bakr, official OPEC correspondent said via X: (Angola and Nigeria) two African states appear to be disputing the assessment of their capacities.
• Angola’s oil minister announced he will sit out the OPEC+ November 26 meeting over apparent discontent around African members upcoming production quotas according to Platts. Diamantino Azevedo walked out of the June meeting because of tighter quotas for the West African nations for failing to produce enough oil. Angola agreed that its 2024 quota would be reduced by 180kbpd to 1.28mbpd, unless it could demonstrate significantly higher production by November's meeting – something it has failed to do. Angolan crude oil output in October stood at 1.172mbpd according to OPEC secondary sources, compared with its quota of 1.455mbpd for 2023.
• Nigeria is also expected to see a quota adjustment next year to 1.38mbpd, from 1.742mbpd this year as the country failed to achieve current levels. The country’s October crude oil output stood at 1.416mbpd according to OPEC secondary sources.