No Change Expected In Monthly LPR fixings

Consensus looks for the 1- & 5-Year Loan Prime Rates to fix at unchanged levels today i.e. 3.85% & 4.65% respectively. Only 1 of the 17 economists surveyed by BBG looks for a 5bp cut in the 1-Year fixing, with the remainder looking for no change. Meanwhile, all 17 surveyed look for no change in the 5-Year fixing.

• Chinese policymakers continue to focus on the real economy, with a preference for targeted easing measures, even as they flag downside risks to the economy e.g. high commodity prices & continued localised lockdowns. This preference for targeted support, coupled with a lack of movement in MLF rates (seen as a pre-cursor for LPR moves) and liquidity tweaks centred on MLF & OMOs (as well as PBoC guidance to that effect) has resulted in several sell-side names rolling back/removing their calls re: imminent LPR rate cuts in recent weeks/months.