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No Change From Fed This Week, Next Meeting Tightening Expectations Higher In The $-Bloc

STIR

The market currently gives a 25bp tightening at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting virtually no chance. A 'hawkish hold' from the Fed is expected, which leaves the market with a cumulative 11bps of tightening out to December. The chances of a 25bp hike at the next policy meeting across the $-bloc sit at:

  • 1% for Sep 20 (FOMC);
  • 25% for Oct 25 (BoC);
  • 9% for Oct 3 (RBA); and
  • 14% for Oct 4 (RBNZ).


Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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