MNI BRIEF: China June CPI Hits Three Month Low

RBNZ MPC SAYS OCR "HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED CPI"

MNI: RBNZ LEAVES OCR AT 5.5%

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Weds; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1342 Weds; -0.53% Y/Y

ITALY MAY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +0.5% M/M ; -3.3% WDA Y/Y

Contrasting Momentum Dynamics Underscore Need For July Data

Services Drive Downside Surprise in CPI-ATE

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

No Clear Consensus Over Size of February Rate Cut

HUNGARY
  • HSBC expect the NBH to reverse to 100bp cuts in February and March. In total they see rates falling by 525bp in 2024 to 5.5%, of which 450bp will be in H1 2024.
  • SocGen note that due to the sensitivity of the NBH’s monetary policy to “market sentiment”, i.e. to developments on the FX market, they believe the bank will deliver only a 75bp cut at the next meeting. Nevertheless, a HUF rally just before the meeting would probably allow the monetary council to deliver a larger 100bp cut. For the time being, they expect the cut to take place in March.
  • UniCredit expect the central bank to cut policy rates by 100bp, although add that a 75bp cut has almost equal probability. They say a 100bp cut is more likely as the window of opportunity for the NBH to cut at a faster pace is narrowing due to base effects and large fee increases by service providers in March and April (especially in telecoms and finance).
  • ING see the NBH cutting the base rate by 100bps as they believe that the majority of the Monetary Council are likely to assess the situation of the HUF on a relative basis and conclude that there is somewhat less pressure on the currency than at the January rate-setting meeting.
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.