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No Material Impact On Fed Rates From Weak EZ PMIs

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have shown little lasting spillover from softer than expected Eurozone PMIs (composite 46.5 vs cons 47.4), led by Germany services re-entering contractionary territory (48.0 vs cons 50.0).
  • Rates for near-term meetings are unchanged on the day, with cumulative hikes of +0.5bp for Nov, +5.5bp for Dec and +9.5bp for January to a terminal 5.43% effective.
  • Instead, meetings further out have reversed most of yesterday’s decline. It leaves cuts of 27bp from terminal to Jun’24 (from 29bp yesterday) and 82bp of cuts from terminal to Dec’24 (from 87bp yesterday).
  • US preliminary PMIs for October headline today’s docket.

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