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No Risk to Azerbaijan's oil Infrastructure from Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

OIL

There is no risk to Azerbaijan's oil infrastructure amidst the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict according to Kpler. Baku has reclaimed control of Nagorno-Karabakh without impacting oil infrastructure.

  • The main BTC pipeline export route does not cross the separatist territory, ensuring uninterrupted operations and oil transportation.
  • The BTC pipeline moves Azeri BTC Blend grade to Turkey's Ceyhan port, while the Baku-Supsa pipeline transports Azeri Light to Georgia with combined exports averaging 550kbpd so far in 2023.
  • The rally in Azeri BTC valuations has come to an end after reaching 8 month highs but the downside for the distillate rich crude remains limited as European gasoil demand for heating increases in Q4.
  • A sharp supply ramp up of 100kbpd is expected by the end of Q1 2024 due to the BP-operated Azeri Central East (ACE) platform coming onstream in the Azeri-Chirag-Deepwater Gunashli (ACG) field in the Caspian Sea.


Source: Kpler

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