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No Signs Of Tax-Related Liquidity Stress So Far (2/2)

US

The upshot is that so far there has been little sign of funding market / liquidity stresses as a result of the tax intake.

  • SOFR for example was up 1bp (to 5.32%) Monday but that's nothing dramatic.
  • While secured rates have risen notably across the higher ends of the distribution (see SOFR 75th-99th percentile), that's not unusual around key tax/quarter end dates.
  • Wrightson ICAP sees SOFR falling to 5.30% by the end of the week.
  • Meanwhile there are no signs of higher Fed funds market activity (volume fell to $83B on Monday from $88B prior).
  • Bank reserves as of last week were at around 1-year highs at $3.62T, continuing to benefit from the decline in the ON RRP facility (well below $500B now), remaining at at levels that will give the Fed limited urgency to taper QT as they head into the May 1 FOMC decision.


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