No Surprises Expected From Election, But 2 Diverse Paths For Nuclear Deal

Tomorrow's presidential election in Iran is not expected to offer any notable surprises in terms of the outcome, with head of the Iranian judiciary - Ebrahim Raisi - viewed as the overwhelming favourite to win in the first round vote (and it not then in the second round run-off that would be held on 25 June.

• Raisi comes from the hardline conservative 'principalist' wing of Iranian politics and is seen as a close ally and protoge of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Raisi is on course to replace incumbent President Hassan Rouhani, who hails from the moderate 'reformist' wing of Iranian politics and oversaw the signing of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA, the Iran nuclear deal). Rouhani cannot run again having served two terms in office from 2013 onwards.
• One of the major issues in focus internationally is what stance a new gov't will take towards the JCPoA. With talks ongoing in Vienna between negotiators from Iran and the other signatories of the deal (China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK) there is the prospect an agreement could be reached on bringing Iran back into compliance with the deal by August 3, the inauguration day for the new president.
• There are two main paths the new Iranian gov't could go down with regards to the JCPoA once it comes to office:
  • The first is that the new president and his fellow hardliners (there is only one reformist candidate standing in the election and he trails substantially in polls) stick to their conservative principles and withdraw from the deal fully, arguing that it supplicates Iran to western powers and stopping Iran's nuclear weapons programme leaves them vulnerable to attack.
  • The other is that should an agreement be reached, the new gov't remains in compliance with the deal. This would allow the new regime to accrue the goodwill from the inevitable economic benefits to Iran that would come with the lifting of sanctions, while blaming the 'weakness' of compromising with the West on the Rouhani gov't.