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No Surprises From September FOMC Minutes

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures climbed off second half lows as the September FOMC Minutes showed a majority expect one more hike, while some deemed further increases not warranted.
  • Fed officials continued to pencil in one additional rate increase this year in their Summary of Economic Projections. That was before a deepening selloff in longer-run Treasuries pushed 10-year yields to 16-year highs, a move some policymakers have since argued could be a substitute for additional rate hikes.
  • Projected rate hikes into early 2024 are largely treading water after the minutes release: November at 9.8% (compared to 30.5% late Fri), w/ implied rate change of +1.9bp to 5.348%, December cumulative of 7.6bp at 5.405%, January 2024 5.9bp at 5.387%. Fed terminal at 5.40% in Jan'24.
  • Still off early session highs where Dec'23 10Y futures (TYZ3) traded up to 108-11 earlier are currently trading 108-00.5, well inside technicals: resistance at 108-11, support at 106-12 (2.0% Lower Bollinger Band).
  • Treasury futures had pared gains after the $35B 10Y note auction reopen (91282CHT1) tailed: 4.610% high yield vs. 4.594% WI; 2.50x bid-to-cover vs. 2.52x prior.
  • Nomination of Scalise to replace McCarthy as House speaker appeared to improve risk sentiment somewhat as stocks traded modestly higher: S&P E-Mini futures are up 6.75 points (0.15%) at 4398,DJIA up 2.5 points (0.01%) at 33741.96, Nasdaq up 58.9 points (0.4%) at 13622.06.
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