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No Surprises In US Core PCE Inflation

DATA REACT
  • Core PCE inflation was exactly as expected in Oct, up +0.43% M/M (survey median 0.4%, mean 0.43%) as it picked up from +0.2% in Sep. There were some small upside revisions to past months but they were lost in the rounding and the annual rate increased to +4.1% Y/Y as expected.
  • CPI data from two weeks ago had shown broad-based inflationary pressures.
  • Real spending meanwhile was stronger than expected in Oct, +0.8% M/M as it accelerated from a softer Sep.
  • This was supported by a further dip in the household savings ratio, back at pre-pandemic levels of 7.3%.
  • Small 1-1.5bp rally in Tsys on the release, DXY dipped very slightly on announcement but has since retraced.
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