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KIWI: No sustained reaction in the NZD/USD & AUD/NZD to the latest ANZ business
confidence survey, which saw the headline metric fall to -38.1 from -32.0, while
the activity outlook reading dipped to 8.0 from 8.5.
- ANZ noted that "inflation indicators were mixed: pricing intentions fell,
reported cost pressures were unchanged, and inflation expectations lifted
slightly. Residential construction intentions bounced. However, the construction
sector has the weakest employment and profitability intentions across the
economy. The outlook for the economy is murky. As things stand, there is no
reason for the economy to fall into a deep hole. Commodity prices are good,
interest rates are at record lows, and the labour market is tight. But the
economy is facing credit and cost headwinds and the global outlook is
deteriorating. On the latter, for all that our commodity prices have been
resilient, the risks are looking decidedly one-sided. Upside risks to growth
appear few and far between and with the inflation outlook not consistent with
the target midpoint we expect two more OCR cuts this year."