NOK/SEK: Nordea enter a long NOK/SEK........>

SCANDIS: NOK/SEK: Nordea enter a long NOK/SEK position, target of SEK1.0150,

stop at SEK0.9300. They "see increasing momentum building for NOK vs. SEK in the

medium term. Both the outlook of higher oil prices post corona (although

uncertainties remain in the short-term) & fundamental differences in

monetary/fiscal policy between Norway & Sweden work in favour of the NOK. Sweden

is running a powerful QE program, the scope for QE in Norway is practically

non-existent. The Riksbank QE program is admittedly small in size in terms of

GDP, but compared to the size of the bond market, the QE program is very

material. Through the set-up of the Norwegian oil fund, bigger deficits in the

national budget means that more assets in the oil fund must be liquidated. Since

all assets in the oil fund are invested abroad this involves large NOK purchases

by Norges Bank. Being long the NOK vs, SEK leaves you vulnerable to another

set-back in equities, although less so than being long NOK against the EUR/USD.

NOK/SEK has been pretty tight with "risk" recently but given the very cheap

valuation, we would expect the "risk"-link to decrease. EUR/SEK is very firmly

supported around the 10.50-10.55 area, leaving risk/reward in long NOK/SEK."