NOKSEK At Lowest Level This Year

NOKSEK operates close to its lowest levels of 2024, currently -0.5% lower on the day at 0.9834, with the Scandis having diverging fortunes against the EUR as a result. The first clear support is 0.9782 (50% retracement of the Dec 13 - Jan 29 rally), after which 0.9734 is seen (Dec 15 low, which was the day after the Norges Bank's surprising 25bps rate hike).

• EURSEK is -0.4% lower at typing while EURNOK has reversed earlier moves lower to trade slightly positive on the day.
• The weakness in crude prices since mid-morning will have weighed on the NOK - our commodities team points to an expected build in US oil inventories as a downside driver today. The latest recovery in oil has helped EURNOK move away from intraday highs in recent trade.
• SEK outperformance is also notable given the closer correlation with equities, as the narrowing gap between the e-mini S&P and contract highs supports higher beta currencies.