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Free AccessNomura Cuts GDP Growth Call
Nomura note that “owing to rapidly worsening high-frequency activity data in April, the rising number of cities under full and partial lockdowns, severe logistics disruptions, and signs that Beijing is unlikely to end its zero-Covid strategy (ZCS) soon, we have decided to cut our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% Y/Y from 3.4% currently, which if it materializes would be a marked slowdown from 4.8% in Q1.”
- “In our baseline scenario, the ZCS is kept in place until March 2023 but with some moderate adjustments after the summer. After this, we expect a rebound in growth to 4.5% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4. As a result, we have cut our annual GDP growth forecast to 3.9% from 4.3% in 2022. We expect a shift to a de facto living-with Covid strategy after March 2023, resulting in a rebound in GDP growth to 5.1% in 2023.”
- “Despite the cut, we still see much higher risk on the downside than on the upside for growth in Q2 as well as H2.”
- “Despite the catching up over the past week evidenced by a rise of USD/CNH to CNH6.45, we believe global markets still underestimate China’s slowdown because much attention has been focused on the Russian-Ukraine conflict and U.S. Fed rate hikes.”
- “In the coming weeks we expect another round of cuts for Q2 and full-year growth forecasts among street economists. Many street economists have already revised down their annual growth forecasts to below 5.0% for 2022 over the past month, while the IMF has slashed its forecast to 4.4% from 4.8%, but the Bloomberg Q2 GDP growth consensus forecast for China is still elevated at 4.6%.”
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.