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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Nomura however writes that the FOMC may well shift up its median longer-run Fed funds rate in the September meeting's Summary of Economic Projections.
- "Considering the US economy continued to surprise to the upside, we see a significant risk that the median longer-run dot rises to 2.75% at the September FOMC meeting" from the 2.50% it first dropped to in 2019.
- This would potentially have significant market consequences. For one thing: "a higher degree of uncertainty around where R* could slow the pace of rate cuts in 2024" and "less conviction in a brisk pace of insurance cuts could also be reflected in the medium-term rate projections as soon as the upcoming September meeting."
- They point to the fact that the longer-run dot has been drifting higher with some FOMC participants raising their projections in June.
- Nomura: "after several years of unprecedented macro shocks, Fed officials are likely especially open-minded to the possibility of regime shifts in growth, inflation, and interest rates."
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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