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Nomura: Unchanged view after expecting the 15bp Dec hike

BOE
  • Had forecast a 15bp hike.
  • “The Committee’s decision to go ahead despite the virus was based on the fact that Omicron’s effect on medium-term inflation pressures was “unclear” – i.e. why delay a hike when inflation is soaring, the labour market is tightening and the economy recovering, when more virus cases are having an uncertain impact on the ability of the Bank to do its job and achieve its inflation goal in the medium term?”
  • “It is clear just how important the data on the labour market were in the Bank’s policy decision today – the Bank’s policy “summary” can be paraphrased as: ‘we told you we’d hike if the labour market remained tight’, which this week’s official data showed.”
  • “We stick with our view that the Bank will raise rates again, by 25bp at its February meeting. Thereafter, we’re looking for another 25bp hike in May and another in H2 2022. We see rates at 1% by end-2022 and terminal rates this cycle at 1.50% in 2023.”
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