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Nomura Up Target & Stop in Long GBP/CHF Trade

GBP

Nomura refresh their long GBP/CHF trade recommendation, upping the target to 1.13, upping the stop to 1.0800. They cite UK data not supportive of an early BoE rate cut, and the SNB giving the greenlight for a weaker CHF.

  • They cite the strong pick up in the monthly increase in private sector regular pay in the UK and upside surprises in CPI. As such, they are more confident the BoE’s rate cut cycle will commence in August 2024 rather than June, which is what the market had priced in.
  • On CHF, they see a de facto green light from the SNB governor to open short CHF positions after Jordan mentioned that CHF appreciation in real terms. They think the governor’s decision to underscore this message is meaningful.
  • Risks to the trade include UK retail sales, a dovish February BoE decision or an increase in geopolitical tensions.
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