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Non-manual Wages Remain Above Manual Counterparts

SWEDEN
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Swedish non-manual workers' wages rose to 4.9% in November '23, up from 4.6% in October. Thus, non-manual wages continue to run hotter than manual counterparts - likely contributing to Sweden's elevated services inflation (6.4% Y/Y) compared to goods (4.0% Y/Y).

  • Most manual workers are represented by unions (Landsorganisationen), who agreed a two-year wage agreement with the Government in April '23. This agreement comprised of a 4.1% Y/Y rise in wages in the first year, followed by a 3.3% rise the following year.
  • The Riksbank has regularly noted that the above agreements made by social parties were "responsible", though continued rises in wages for non-union workers will no doubt be a concern in early 2024 monetary policy meetings, with the first decision of the year due Thursday. Markets will be watchful of any softening in the Riksbank's hawkish guidance, with the first 25bp rate cut currently priced for the May meeting.

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Swedish non-manual workers' wages rose to 4.9% in November '23, up from 4.6% in October. Thus, non-manual wages continue to run hotter than manual counterparts - likely contributing to Sweden's elevated services inflation (6.4% Y/Y) compared to goods (4.0% Y/Y).

  • Most manual workers are represented by unions (Landsorganisationen), who agreed a two-year wage agreement with the Government in April '23. This agreement comprised of a 4.1% Y/Y rise in wages in the first year, followed by a 3.3% rise the following year.
  • The Riksbank has regularly noted that the above agreements made by social parties were "responsible", though continued rises in wages for non-union workers will no doubt be a concern in early 2024 monetary policy meetings, with the first decision of the year due Thursday. Markets will be watchful of any softening in the Riksbank's hawkish guidance, with the first 25bp rate cut currently priced for the May meeting.