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Non-Supervisory AHE Lowest Since '21

US DATA
  • The fade in average hourly earnings puts the M/M measure at lowest since early 2022 (unrounded at 0.2371%), but worth noting the more pronounced fall in non-supervisory roles average hourly earnings - falling to the lowest since 2021.
  • The Y/Y slowing in AHE more pronounced than headlines suggest also: 4.286% (rounded up to 4.3% for the headline) from 4.361% in July.
Figure 1: Non-supervisory AHE at lowest since '21


  • Tick higher in participation rate also a surprise, a new post-pandemic best at 62.8%. Still 0.5ppts to go until pre-pandemic levels met at 63.3%.
Figure 2: Participation rate bumped higher, 0.5ppts from pre-pandemic levels

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