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Non-Trivial Pricing Of Back-To-Back 50bp Hikes For Upcoming FOMC Meetings

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Note that FOMC dated OIS now price in a cumulative ~82bp of tightening come the end of the Fed’s June meeting, meaning that a roughly 30% chance of back-to-back 50bp rate hikes from the Fed is priced for its next two meetings, with hawkish re-pricing most recently aided by Fed Chair Powell’s firmer tone when it comes to tightening (delivered on Monday). Meanwhile, December ’22 FOMC dated OIS is pricing in ~185bp of cumulative tightening over the remainder of the calendar year. That equates to ~7.4x 25bp hikes over the remaining 6 Fed meetings of ’22.


Fig. 1: June & Dec ’22 FOMC Dated OIS (%)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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