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Nonfarm Fireworks Only Brief Ahead Of Long Weekend

US TSYS SUMMARY

The much-anticipated June employment report provided an upside surprise on headline job gains Friday, but mixed underlying data dampened the fireworks ahead of the long holiday weekend.

  • An above-consensus nonfarm payrolls gain of 850k (130k more than expected, plus higher revisions to prior) was offset by a slightly higher unemployment rate (+0.1pp to 5.9% vs 5.6% expected), as the Establishment and Household surveys appeared to tell slightly different stories.
  • Either way it didn't change the macro narrative conclusively. The curve steepened slightly (5Y yields headed lower, potentially fading earlier Fed liftoff risks). Once the immediate volatility played out, TYs continued their short-trend higher, narrowing the gap with the Jun 21 high of 132-30.
  • Sep 10-Yr futures (TY) up 14.5/32 at 132-23 (L: 132-07.5 / H: 132-23.5) The 2-Yr yield is down 1.7bps at 0.2356%, 5-Yr is down 3.5bps at 0.8573%, 10-Yr is down 3.1bps at 1.4272%, and 30-Yr is down 1.9bps at 2.0417%.
  • This came alongside continued gains in equities (S&P hit an ATH for the 6th straight day).
  • Globex futures trade until 1700ET Friday, but CME floor closed at 1300ET and Sifma recommended cash close at 1400ET. The latter two resume Tuesday.
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