Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
June nonfarm payrolls (out 0830ET/1330BST) are seen rising by 720k (BBG median) vs +559k in May, with the range of estimates running from 400k-1050k with standard distribution of 123k.
- The unemployment rate is seen falling to 5.6% vs 5.8% in May, with average hourly earnings slowing to +0.3% M/M from +0.5% prior.
- As our data team reports, while new graduates and students off for the summer likely expanded the labor pool, the supply of available workers last month remained muted, keeping upward pressure on wages.
- The sell-side forecasts we've seen mostly expect a strong contribution from government payrolls due largely to fewer-than-usual June layoffs in the education sector.
- Market reaction is likely to be more pronounced on an upside beat rather than a downside miss.
- This is because a weaker-than-expected headline figure will probably be seen as a supply-side rather than demand-side issue, and one that's already taken into account by the Fed; on the other hand a figure of say 1mn+ could reignite concerns about an earlier rate hike liftoff.
- The timing ahead of the holiday weekend is also a consideration: JPM points out that Tsy yields "are sensitive to payroll surprises, and that these moves can be amplified when employment data are released on holiday-shortened trading sessions."
Distribution of Estimates For Jun Nonfarm Payroll Growth ('000s on x-axis)Source: BBG Survey, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok