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NORD STREAM 1 – Why Have Flows Halted and When Could Flow Resume?

RUSSIA
  • European markets roiled this morning by the fallout from the cancellation of a resumption of NS1 gas flow, with a leak at the last operating turbine at the Portovaya compressor station largely responsible. Gazprom have stated that issue with the Siemens Energy Trent 60 turbine creates the risk of an explosion or fire, although this is contested by Siemens themselves, who claim that such leaks “usually do not affect the operation of the turbine and can be repaired on site”.
  • The crux of the issue may be down to who is responsible for overseeing and carrying out the repairs: according to Kommersant this weekend, Siemens Energy and Gazprom have no existing contract that covers unscheduled engine maintenance, with the on-site engineers only responsible for supervision.
  • Peskov this weekend claimed “If the Europeans absolutely absurdly make a decision to refuse to service their equipment, or rather, equipment that belongs to Gazprom, but which they are contractually required to service, this is not Gazprom's fault,"
  • The reality is the stoppage could be more political in nature: Kommersant sources have stated that they do not expect gas flow to be resumed in the “foreseeable future” and that “supplies via NS1 can only be resumed if sanctions are lifted, which is possible only if a more general political settlement is reached”.
  • Nominations data show zero flow booked in for the pipeline out to early Wednesday, after being marked down sharply on Friday ahead of the leak announcement.
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