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Nordea and Swedbank FOMC Reviews: Attention On Labor Market Clues

FED

Nordea writes that with the Fed considering a rise in inflation above 2% as transitory, "the only true inflation stems from the labor market (according to the Fed), why the labor market is now the one to watch."

  • Nordea sees "a risk of core inflation breaking above 3% by summer, and staying above target well into 2022." They see tapering debated in June, launched in September, with rate hike liftoff in 1H 2022.
Swedbank noted a "softly hawkish" message from the FOMC. While the statement included reference to "transitory" inflation, it excluded employment from this categorization, which implies a positive outlook.
  • Swedbank continues to expect tapering to begin at end-2021, with rhetoric changing during the summer; but a risk that the shift happens later if data isn't convincing enough. No hikes through 2022.
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