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Nordea on FOMC, Keep Eye on NFP

FED
Nordea analysts wrote Chairman Powell "hinted that 755K as the three-month average of the NFP job creation remained solid, which is fully in line with our view that a 600-800k on average over three months is easily enough to convince the Fed of moving on tapering already in November."
  • Reminder, the next employment report covering September is Friday, October 8.
  • Nordea noted the "pace of tapering will likely be calibrated towards ending the net purchase by summer 2022 – again in line with our expectations since the early spring. This is much swifter than the 2014 tapering process if succeeded, since the 2014 process took around 10-12 months from a lower initial nominal monthly purchase level.
  • We expect a 40bn a quarter tapering process commencing in November (with initial focus on MBS purchases) and a first lift-off in the late autumn of 2022. Do note that Powell referred to a lift-off being possible "earlier than assumed", which in our view is consistent with a H2-2022 lift-off target.
  • Voting-wise Bullard, George, Mester and Rosengren are back in 2022, while Evans, Daly, Barkin and Bostic are out. A clear hawkisk tilt."
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