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Nordea: Potential for inter-meeting announcement

RIKSBANK
  • Nordea expects that "a worried Riksbank will leave both its repo rate and rate path unchanged on Thursday 26 November. This means a repo rate at zero and a rate path stuck at zero throughout the forecast horizon, which now extends until Q4 2023."
  • "Purchases during H1 2021 will be distributed largely as before, we think. The purchase of mortgage bonds will thus continue despite the housing market being on fire again."
  • Nordea thinks that QE will be extended, but not in the November meeting "Instead, we think the bank will clearly signal that its purchase programmes could be adjusted between monetary policy meetings - and this may well happen. When it's time to extend the programme, it will likely be in the same magnitude as previously, that is, SEK 200bn."
  • "The reason [for not extending QE at this meeting] is that the bank probably wants to take a wait-and-see stance and possibly revise its monetary policy against the background of the ECB's meeting 10 December."
  • "A rate cut next year cannot be entirely ruled out, though. Price pressures are low and inflation expectations muted. A marked appreciation of the SEK would drive inflation even lower, which could force the Riksbank to take action."
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