Nordic August Gives Back Gains

The Nordic August baseload power contract dropped early Friday morning – reversing its gains made in the previous session – as TTF prices are slightly down on the day, with losses in Germany adding additional weight. Temperatures throughout the 10-day forecast in the Nordics are relatively unchanged on the day and still suggest relatively mild temperatures – albeit above the 30-year norm- suggesting the possibility of limited cooling demand.

• Nordic Base Power AUG 24 down 4.8% at 29 EUR/MWh
  
• France Base Power AUG 24 down 1.3% at 44 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.4% at 69.69 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.1% at 68.31 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.3% at 31.02 EUR/MWh
• And average temperatures across the Nordics are forecast between 18-19.4C over 12-21 July compared to the 30-year norm of around 17C, with max temperatures only reaching as high as 23.5C over the same period – possibly limited cooling demand.
• Precipitation across Norway has been slightly revised down over 13-14 July but will remain above the seasonal average for most of the 10-day forecast of around 4mm, according to ECMWF – likely adding support to hydro stocks.
• This has supported the hydro balance in Norway, with the forecast revised up by as much as around 600GWh towards the end of the month – likely reducing supply risks.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated between 11-24% load factors, or 0.561-1.27GW over 13-14 July – which could weigh down power costs coupled with typically low weekend demand. Wind is expected to remain firm on 15 July from the previous day at 1.14GW before dropping to 740MW the next day – which could add some support to prices.