MNI BRIEF: Carney Sworn In As PM, Names Champagne To Finance

MNI BRIEF: Olli Rehn Gets Second Term As Bank Of Finland Head

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 14

MNI BRIEF: China February M2 Stays At 7% Y/Y

RPT-MNI INTERVIEW2: Lag Justifies Faster CNB Easing - Holub

CHINA JAN-FEB NEW LOANS CNY6.14 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY6.43 TRLN

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: DE, NL and FR Due Monday

Copy - EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-month UKTB Due Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: SlovGB Auction Monday

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

POWER: Nordic Forward Curve Could Trade in Red on Temps, Stronger Hydro Balance

POWER
BulletPower BulletsEnergy BulletsCommodities

The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – with 2Q25 already trading in red – amid losses in TTF and upward revisions of average temperatures in the region weighing on demand and easing pressure on hydro stocks. Stronger revisions of the hydro balances in Norway and Sweden could also weigh.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 settled down 2.8% at 33.2 EUR/MWh on 25 Feb
  • France Base Power MAR 25 up 1.2% at 78.28 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1% at 93.11 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.2% at 71.91 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.9% at 43.9 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 3.2% at 94.25 USD/MT
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant will curtail capacity by 1GW on 27 February over 09:00-09:35 CET due to the testing.
  • The unit is expected to have planned maintenance over 1 March-25 April
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 2-12 March, with upward revisions seen as high as around 1.4TWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +9.85TWh on 12 March compared to +8.69TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.85TWh on 12 March compared to +5.42TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 26 February – 3 March and will remain above the seasonal average until 12 March.
  • Average temps are seen peaking on 6 March before being on a downward trend over 7-12 March – albeit still above the seasonal norm.
  • But rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be below the seasonal norm throughout the 6–10-day ECWMF forecast. However, it will rise slightly from 1 March before peaking around 4 March and steadily decline after.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.49GW on 27 February, or an 29% load factor, up from today's 1.15GW forecast, which could place downward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 100% capacity on Wednesday morning, up from 97% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.
321 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The Nordic forward curve may face downward pressure – with 2Q25 already trading in red – amid losses in TTF and upward revisions of average temperatures in the region weighing on demand and easing pressure on hydro stocks. Stronger revisions of the hydro balances in Norway and Sweden could also weigh.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 settled down 2.8% at 33.2 EUR/MWh on 25 Feb
  • France Base Power MAR 25 up 1.2% at 78.28 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 up 1% at 93.11 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 0.2% at 71.91 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.9% at 43.9 EUR/MWh
  • Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 3.2% at 94.25 USD/MT
  • The 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant will curtail capacity by 1GW on 27 February over 09:00-09:35 CET due to the testing.
  • The unit is expected to have planned maintenance over 1 March-25 April
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 2-12 March, with upward revisions seen as high as around 1.4TWh from previous forecasts. The balance is anticipated at +9.85TWh on 12 March compared to +8.69TWh previously estimated.
  • Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +5.85TWh on 12 March compared to +5.42TWh in the previous estimate.
  • Average temperatures in the region have been mostly revised up over 26 February – 3 March and will remain above the seasonal average until 12 March.
  • Average temps are seen peaking on 6 March before being on a downward trend over 7-12 March – albeit still above the seasonal norm.
  • But rainfall in the Nordics is expected to be below the seasonal norm throughout the 6–10-day ECWMF forecast. However, it will rise slightly from 1 March before peaking around 4 March and steadily decline after.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 1.49GW on 27 February, or an 29% load factor, up from today's 1.15GW forecast, which could place downward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 100% capacity on Wednesday morning, up from 97% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg. 11 of the 11 units are still online.