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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve May Descend on Temps, Wetter Outlook

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could descend - once it becomes liquid - weighed down by a much stronger outlook for Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balances quelling some winter supply risks. And temperatures in the region are still expected to remain above the seasonal norm, rising from next week towards the higher end of ECMWF forecasts. But gains in German power, TTF may limit losses.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 closed up 7.1% at 36.15 EUR/MWh on 27 Jan
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 3% at 104.6 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 112.4 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 79.24 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1% at 48.32 EUR/MWh
  • The unplanned outage on the 2.2-3.7GW power cable between Norway’s NO2- NO1 zones has been extended to 29 January, with the units still curtailed, latest Remit data show.
  • Capacity on the 3.7GW NO2-NO1 link is curtailed by 1.2GW until 29 January 23:59 CET
  • The 2.2GW link in the other direction is curtailed by 300MW until the same period.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was sharply revised up over 5-11 February by around 349-780GWh and is expected to end +11.82TWh on 11 February, up from +10.86TWh in the previous forecast for the same day.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected higher on the day and is now anticipated at +7.30TWh on 11 February from +6.70TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • And demand could remain somewhat below the seasonal average, reducing pressure on hydro stocks, as average temperatures in the Nordics are expected to rise from early next week and reach the higher end of the ECMWF forecast at around 4.3C on 9 February.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 unit is still expected to return to the grid on Friday, after being pushed back from 28 January. The unit will take a few days to power up to full capacity.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 89% capacity on Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day. 10 of 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind in Norway is expected at a 22% load factor, or 1.14GW on 29 January, slightly up from a 21% load factor today.
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The Nordic forward curve could descend - once it becomes liquid - weighed down by a much stronger outlook for Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balances quelling some winter supply risks. And temperatures in the region are still expected to remain above the seasonal norm, rising from next week towards the higher end of ECMWF forecasts. But gains in German power, TTF may limit losses.

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 closed up 7.1% at 36.15 EUR/MWh on 27 Jan
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 3% at 104.6 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 112.4 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 79.24 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1% at 48.32 EUR/MWh
  • The unplanned outage on the 2.2-3.7GW power cable between Norway’s NO2- NO1 zones has been extended to 29 January, with the units still curtailed, latest Remit data show.
  • Capacity on the 3.7GW NO2-NO1 link is curtailed by 1.2GW until 29 January 23:59 CET
  • The 2.2GW link in the other direction is curtailed by 300MW until the same period.
  • Norway’s hydrological balance was sharply revised up over 5-11 February by around 349-780GWh and is expected to end +11.82TWh on 11 February, up from +10.86TWh in the previous forecast for the same day.
  • Sweden’s balance is also expected higher on the day and is now anticipated at +7.30TWh on 11 February from +6.70TWh previously estimated for the same day.
  • And demand could remain somewhat below the seasonal average, reducing pressure on hydro stocks, as average temperatures in the Nordics are expected to rise from early next week and reach the higher end of the ECMWF forecast at around 4.3C on 9 February.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 unit is still expected to return to the grid on Friday, after being pushed back from 28 January. The unit will take a few days to power up to full capacity.
  • Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 89% capacity on Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day. 10 of 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg.
  • Wind in Norway is expected at a 22% load factor, or 1.14GW on 29 January, slightly up from a 21% load factor today.