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POWER: Nordic Forward Curve to Be Weighed Down But Temps Could Limit Losses

POWER
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The Nordic forward curve could be weighed down amid losses in TTF and German power, with an upward revision of Norway's and Sweden’s hydro balances towards the end of the month. However, temperatures in the Nordics have been revised down and are still expected to be well below the norm until 25 February – which may limit losses.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 unchanged at 46.6 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 1.5% at 94.88 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.8% at 109.68 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.8% at 82.27 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.5% at 57.72 EUR/MWh
  • An Unplanned outage has occurred on the 1.45GW Viking Link power cable between Denmark (DK1)-UK, with the link curtailed to 728MW on 11 February over 06:00-16:00CET, latest Remit data show.
  • The unit is curtailed in both directions over the period.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 11-25 Feb, with upward revisions seen as high as around 200GWh from previous forecasts. The balance anticipated at +2.79TWh on 25 Feb compared to +2.69TWh previously estimated.
  • It is important to note that the balance is still expected to be on a general downward trend until at least 25 February.
  • But Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.34TWh on 25 Feb compared to +4.28TWh in the previous estimate.
  • And rainfall in the Nordics over 11-23 Feb will see below-normal precipitation – which could decrease flows into the reservoirs, with precipitation only flipping above over 24-25 Feb.
  • Average temperatures in the region will be below the 30-year norm of around -2C throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts, with temps seen reaching as low as -6.1C. Temperatures have also been revised down by as much as 0.6C over 11-16 February.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.856GW on 12 Feb, or a 16% load factor down from today's 1.04GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 98% capacity on Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 is still expected to fully return to the grid around 11 February
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The Nordic forward curve could be weighed down amid losses in TTF and German power, with an upward revision of Norway's and Sweden’s hydro balances towards the end of the month. However, temperatures in the Nordics have been revised down and are still expected to be well below the norm until 25 February – which may limit losses.

  • Nordic Base Power MAR 25 unchanged at 46.6 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power MAR 25 down 1.5% at 94.88 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power MAR 25 down 0.8% at 109.68 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.8% at 82.27 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas MAR 25 down 0.5% at 57.72 EUR/MWh
  • An Unplanned outage has occurred on the 1.45GW Viking Link power cable between Denmark (DK1)-UK, with the link curtailed to 728MW on 11 February over 06:00-16:00CET, latest Remit data show.
  • The unit is curtailed in both directions over the period.
  • The Norwegian hydro balance is expected higher over 11-25 Feb, with upward revisions seen as high as around 200GWh from previous forecasts. The balance anticipated at +2.79TWh on 25 Feb compared to +2.69TWh previously estimated.
  • It is important to note that the balance is still expected to be on a general downward trend until at least 25 February.
  • But Sweden’s hydro balance is expected at +4.34TWh on 25 Feb compared to +4.28TWh in the previous estimate.
  • And rainfall in the Nordics over 11-23 Feb will see below-normal precipitation – which could decrease flows into the reservoirs, with precipitation only flipping above over 24-25 Feb.
  • Average temperatures in the region will be below the 30-year norm of around -2C throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts, with temps seen reaching as low as -6.1C. Temperatures have also been revised down by as much as 0.6C over 11-16 February.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecasted at 0.856GW on 12 Feb, or a 16% load factor down from today's 1.04GW forecast, which could place upward pressure on delivery.
  • Nordic nuclear capacity was at 98% capacity on Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day, according to Bloomberg.
  • The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 is still expected to fully return to the grid around 11 February