Nordic Front-Month Falls to Monthly Low on 4 June

The Nordic July baseload power contract closed at a monthly low on 4 June to take direction from price declines in the energy complex on the same day, with price falls in the European power market adding additional downward pressure. The product could continue to be weighed down today once it becomes liquid due to a slight fall in TTF and German power, with nuclear capacity in the region up.

• Nordic July closed at €33.55/MWh on 4 June down from €36/MWh on 3 June and the lowest this month.
  
• TTF July down 0.29% at €33.98/MWh.
• Finland’s 1.6GW Olkiluoto 3 returned to the grid on Tuesday, with the unit running at about 1.49GW at the time of writing, according to plant operator TVO.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 71% of capacity on Wednesday, up from 70% on Tuesday, with 9 of 11 units online.
• Nuclear availability is still scheduled to climb by 890MW on 16 June owing to the delayed return of the Olkiluoto 1 unit, with the 1.07GW Ringhals 3 back on 29 June.
• Closer in, Swedish hydro generation could be slightly dented amid planned maintenance of the 201MW Seitevare hydro plant over 4-14 June, latest Remit data show. Possibly supporting hydro stocks.
• Available capacity on the 985MW DK2-DE power link will be between 361-946MW over 10-14 June owing to planned maintenance – this could increase prices in Germany due to curtailments of cheaper Danish power.
• Maximum temperatures throughout the two-week forecast in Oslo, Norway expected between 12-18C – keeping cooling demand limited.
• Maximum temperatures in Helsinki, Finland are between 19-22C over the same period, with max temperatures in Stockholm between 18-21C, according to the Bloomberg model.
• Norwegian wind has been revised up by 273MW on 6 June to around 1.36GW, or a 26% load factor. Wind is then expected to drop between 18-25%, or 0.972-1.39GW over 7-8 June before picking up sharply to a 51% load factor, about 2.6GW over 9-10 June.