Nordic Front-Month Falls to Two-Session Low

The Nordic front month baseload power contract has fallen to align with its 12 June close as losses for the equivalent European power contracts have weighed down the contract owing to losses in TTF, Emissions. But rainfall forecasts have been slightly revised lower on the day, albeit mostly in line with the 30-year norm - which could slow hydro refilling.

• Nordic Base Pwr JUL 24 down 5.2% at 28.00 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Pwr JUL 24 down 1.7% at 75.40 EUR/MWh
• Rainfall in the Nordics over the 15-16 June was revised down slightly by a total of 0.6mm, with precipitation throughout the two-week forecast between 0.6-7.5mm compared to the 30-year norm of about 3mm. But rainfall is expected to only be above the historical average over 18-19 June and 21-22 June, according to ECMWF forecast.
• But Sweden’s 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is still anticipated to return on 16 June, after having works brought forward by two days on 13 June, latest Remit data show.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to steadily rise over 14-18 June to be between 13.5-17C compared to the seasonal norm of about 14C. Temperatures are then expected to begin tapering off, falling to 15.7C on 20 June before rebounding to rise to 17C on 23 June.
• Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at 0.555-0.708GW, or 13-11% load factors over 17-18 June, -down by around 500MW on the day – with wind then expected at 0.78-1.8GW over 19-21 June, or 15-35% load factors, SpotRenewables – possibly weighing down power prices.