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Nordic Front-Month Retreats on Nuclear Return

POWER

The Nordic July baseload power contract has edged down slightly to shrug off slight gains in the TTF equivalent as the unplanned outage of Sweden’s nuclear plant on Monday has ended, latest Remit data show. But the contract could be supported as the trading session progresses if the upward movements of EU ETS and gas lift power prices in neighbouring countries.

  • Nordic Base Pwr JUL 24 down 1.6% at 30.75 EUR/MWh
  • TTF Gas JUL 24 up 1.2% at 34.67 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Pwr JUL 24 down 0.1% at 76.26 EUR/MWh
  • Swedish firm Vattenfall’s 1.17GW Forsmark unit 3 is connected to grid and is anticipated to begin powering up on Tuesday afternoon, with full power reached on the morning of the 14 June, latest Remit data show.
  • The 890MW Olkiluoto 1 and 1.07GW Ringhals unit 3 are still expected to return on 16-29 June, respectively.
  • Hydro generation could also be supported amid the return of about 880MW of capacity coming back online between 12-20 June, Remit show. All of this capacity is located in Norway.
  • Capacity on the 615MW SE4-DE (Tennet) interconnector will be lowered to just 100MW over 27-28 June, with capacity on 6.2GW SE3-SE4 power link reduced to 4.9GW over the same period.
  • The 600MW PL-SE4 and 700MW LT-SE4 interconnectors will be curtailed by 250MW and 350MW, respectively, on 27-28 June also.
  • Closer in, Norwegian wind is forecast at 1.08GW, or a 21% load factor on 12 June, - possibly weighing down prices on delivery, with wind then expected between 0.736-0.857GW, or 14-16% load factors over 13-14 June, according to SpotRenewables.
  • Average temperatures in the Nordics have been slightly revised lower on the day and are still anticipated to be below the 30-year norm of about 14C over 11-14 June. Minimum temperatures are between 8-9C over 11-14 June, with maximum temperatures around 17-18C over the same period.
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