Nordic Front-Quarter Drops to Track EU Neighbours

The Nordic 3Q baseload power contract is trading in red territory this morning as lower European gas and emission prices are denting neighbouring EU power markets. Average power consumption in the region could drop in 3Q from 2Q -weighing on power prices in delivery, with power supply usually meeting demand.

• Nordic Q3 down 5.21% at €36.70/MWh.
• TTF July down 1.81% at €33.075/MWh.
• Power consumption in the Nordics averaged about 6.64TWh in the 3Q23 compared to about 7.28TWh averaged in the previous quarter, data from Norwegian TSO Statnett show.
• Average power production in the region was able to meet demand in both quarters, although the net production-demand was higher in the 3Q23 with around 2TWh compared to 2Q23 at 1.14TWh.
• This weighed on power prices over the period, with the Nord Pool system-wide price averaging €27.61/MWh in the 3Q23 from €55.98/MWh in the previous quarter.
• But nuclear maintenance is anticipated over the period, reducing baseload generation -, which could support prices on delivery.
• Sweden’s 990MW Forsmark block 1 will be offline over 7-27 July, with 1.13GW Ringhals block 4 disconnected over 15 August-13 September, latest remit data show.
• Both 507MW Loviisa blocks 1&2 will also undergo planned works over 31 August-30 September & 4-25 August, respectively.
• Closer in, average temperatures throughout the two-week forecast are expected to be below the 30-year norm of about 14C, over 7-12 June, before climbing between 14-16C over 13-16 June, Bloomberg Model show.
• But Nordic nuclear reactors Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 79% of capacity on Friday, up from 71% on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated between 24-28% load factors, or 1.24-1.49GW over 8-12 June – with wind revised up on the day over the period by a total of around 800MW.