Nordic Front Year Edges Up

The Nordic front-year has moved up slightly on Thursday morning, as temperatures are expected to drop into negative territory towards the beginning of 2025, lifting heating demand. But gains could be limited as the European equivalents are currently trending down amid losses in gas and emissions, while limited nuclear maintenance is scheduled in 1Q25.

• Nordic Base Power JAN 25 up 0.7% at 43.2 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Power AUG 24 down 0.4% at 75.23 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 down 0.4% at 68.15 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 0.9% at 32.33 EUR/MWh
• Only the 1.6GW OL3 nuclear power plant will be disconnected from the grid over 1Q25, with maintenance occurring over 1 March – 7 April. The 1.4GW Oskarshamn 3 reactor will be disconnected towards the end, with works over 29 March-17 April, latest Remit show.
• But average temperatures in the Nordics are expected to begin trending downwards from July to reach as low as -2.5C in January 2025, which could support power prices over the period due to a rise in heating demand.
• Wind speeds in the Nordics are forecast at around 1.76 m/s in January 2025, up from 1.49 m/s in the previous month, which could weigh down prices amid the possibility of stronger wind output over the month.
• Closer in, Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at around 87% of capacity on Thursday morning, unchanged from the previous day.
• Norway’s hydrological balance is expected to be positive towards the first week of August to rise to around +95GWh on 8 August from a low of -1,012GWh forecast for 25 July – which could reduce supply risks going into winter.
• However, Nordic hydropower reserves slowed their rise last week (week 29, with stocks continuing to narrow their surplus the same week last year.
• Norwegian wind is anticipated at a 23% load factor, or 1.23GW on 26 July – which could weigh down power prices on delivery, with stable nuclear adding further downward pressure