Nordic Front Year Rises on Gains in European Markets

The Nordic front-year base load contract is edging up to follow slight gains in the surrounding European power markets. Prices could be supported on delivery towards the beginning of the year as demand usually picks up due to cooler temperatures in the region. However, limited maintenance at nuclear units is planned over 1Q25.

• Nordic Base Pwr JAN 25 up 0.6% at 46.5 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Pwr Cal JAN 25 up 0.4% at 93.5 EUR/MWh
• Finland's 1.6GW nuclear power plant is anticipated to begin planned maintenance on 1 March, with the unit offline until 7 April, latest remit data show.
• The 1.4GW Oskarshamn 3 nuclear plant will be offline from 29 March – 17 April – lowering baseload generation.
• Average temperatures in the Nordics according to the 30-year norm are between about 0C to minus 2.5C over January- March, Bloomberg Model shows – increasing the need for heating and raising demand.
• But wind speeds typically pick up over the same period between 3.8-4.5 m/s, remaining firm from October-November- possibly keeping a lid on gains on power prices. This trend is also seen in Germany.
• Closer in, Norway’s 136MW Songa hydropower plant will undergo planned maintenance over the 7-14 June – supporting hydro stocks in the region.
• In Oslo, the mean temperature is forecast to drop as low as 8C on June 8, 5 degrees below the 30-year norm.
• Norwegian wind is estimated at 5.3GW, or an 8% load factor on Friday – unchanged on the day – before increasing between 12.4-14.4GW over 8-10 June.