Nordic-German June Power Discount at May High

The Nordic-German June power discount is at a May high as prices in the Nordics have fallen sharply on Thursday morning, with above-normal temperatures across the region expected, although cooling demand will be limited. Precipitation is expected in Norway over the majority of the two-week forecast, which could support hydro stocks and reduce supply risks for the upcoming winter.

• Nordic Base Pwr JUN 24 down 4% at 28.7 EUR/MWh
  
• Germany Base Pwr JUN 24 up 0.8% at 71.55 EUR/MWh
• The Nordic-German June Power discount is trading at €42.85/MWh discount, up from €41.09/MWh on 29 May and surpassing the previous high of €42.34/MWh on 27 May.
• Maximum temperatures across the Nordics have been slightly revised up on 31 May, with temperatures expected between 16-25C over the next two weeks.
• Power demand in Norway is forecast to drop to around 11.83GW in June from 12.6GW in May. A similar trend is also seen in Sweden.
• The probability of precipitation in Norway over the next 14 days is between 20-85%, with 5-10 mm/day of rain forecast over the period, according to Meteoblue.
• Nordic hydro stocks over 20-26 May (week 21) moved upward for the fourth consecutive week, albeit slowing on the week, as levels across the region increased, with stocks flipping to surplus to the 19-year average.
• Closer in, Nordic wind output is forecast at 0.695-0.887GW, or 13-17% load factors over 31 May-1 June, with output picking up over 2-7 June between 1.39-2.39GW, or 26-46% load factors, according to SpotRenewables.
• Demarks 380MW unit 4 at its 760MW Studstrupværket coal power plant shutdown yesterday morning, with the unit disconnected until 31 May at 04:00 CET.