POWER
Nordic hydro stocks over 20-26 May (week 21) moved upward for the fourth consecutive week, albeit slowing on the week, as levels across the region increased, with stocks flipping to surplus to the 19-year average. Hydro reservoirs could be weighed on this week due to above-normal temperature forecasts and the delayed restart of nuclear units.
- Hydro reservoir levels were at 48.6%, or about 61.72TWh, last week from 40.1%, or 50.97TWh in week 20. This is the highest reservoir levels have been since week 4 of this year.
- But Hydro stocks slowed their week-on-week gain, moving up by 8.5 percentage points (PP) compared to a 9.4 PP rise in week 20. This is the slowest week-on-week gain since week 19.
- Hydro stocks widened their surplus to the same week in 2023 to a fresh yearly high of 5.8 PP up from 4.4 PP.
- And Reservoir levels flipped to a 3.3 PP surplus to a 19-year avg from being at just a 0.5 PP deficit last week. This is the first time this year that stocks have been above the 19-year average.
- Finnish hydro levels increased again 72.6%, or about 4TWh – the highest since week 47 in 2023 at 73.4% of capacity.
- Swedish hydro stocks rose to 46.1% of capacity from 36.8% in week 20 as stocks increased in all Sweden’s bidding zones, except for the SE4 area.
- And Norwegian stocks climbed to 48.1% from 40%, with stocks higher on the week in all five of Norway’s bidding areas.
- Average temperatures in the Nordics are anticipated to be above the 30-year norm of about 14C over 30 May-7 June, with temperatures reaching as high as 19C over 31 May-3 June – potentially increasing power demand and supporting power prices.
- And nuclear capacity in the Nordic region has not increased as previously expected this week as works at the 890MW Olkiluoto 1 nuclear reactor in Finland were extended to 16 June from 28 May, the latest Remit data show.
- The 101MW curtailment at the 1.6GW Olkiluoto 3 has also been extended to 7 June, with its capacity lowered as much as 470MW for some hours on 29 May.
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