Nordic Hydro Stocks Flip to On-Year Deficit

Nordic hydropower reserves picked up the speed of their rise last week (week 32) to be at 74.9% of capacity, or 95.13TWh, however, stocks flipped to a deficit for the same week in 2023.

• Stocks increased by 1.7 percentage points compared to a 0-point gain the week prior.
  
• Reservoir levels flipped to a 1.7-point deficit from a 0.6-point surplus in week 31. The last time stocks were at a deficit was in week 17 of this year.
• However, the deficit to the 19-year average narrowed to 6.2 points from 6.6 points in week 31 – halting its 5-week widening trend.
• Finnish hydro stocks fell for the seventh consecutive week to 69% of capacity to remain at a deficit to the same week in 2023.
• Norwegian and Swedish reserves climbed to 75.9% and 73.3%, respectively, from 73.9% and 71.9% the week prior.
• Looking ahead, the latest ECMWF forecast suggests the hydrological balance across Norway has been revised down over 14-15 August – which could weigh on power hydro levels.
• But Norway’s hydrological balance is still expected to turn positive towards the end of August, however, slightly less than previously forecast, with the balance now expected to reach around +566GWh compared to +1,030GWh anticipated on Tuesday morning.
• The 1.13GW Ringhals unit 4 over 15 August-13 September, with the 500MW Loviisa unit 1 offline over 31 August-30 September – possibly weighing on stocks.
• Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 86% of capacity on Wednesday, down from 88% on the previous day.